ANALYSIS AND PRIDICTION OF METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT USING STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX: CASE STUDY OF EASTERN OROMIA

Abstract

Ethiopia is one of the most drought affected country in Africa and suffered from acute drought many time in recent years. The objective of this study is to understand the rainfall variation and conduct an in-depth analysis and prediction of drought for to Eastern Oromia. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) was selected to characterize drought condition in the region. Drought characteristics at a time scale of 2-month, 3-month, 6month and 12-month were computed separately for 22 selected rain gauge station. The most maximum drought characteristics at 2-month, 3-month, 6-month and 12-month time scales have been found in Hararegie over last 36 years (1979-2015). The spacial extent of drought and rainfall variation were determined from SPI and CV values computed separately for each rainfall have been interpolated between station in Arc view GIS environment. The rainfall variation shows that the rainfall over the study area is highly variable and increases from Arsi to East Harargie and in the recent last decade (2005-2015) the map of SIP-3 (Belg) shows that a spacial extent drought over study area was irregular and there were no period in recent decades (2005-2015) without drought at least mild drought and this shows that the area is vulnerable to drought. The maximum intensity of (5.33) was recorded at Fedis Station for SPI-3 (kiremt season) in a year 1996, maximum intensity of (4.04) was recorded at Kobo Station in a year 1985 for SPI-3 (Belg season), maximum intensity of (4.77 and 4.5) were recorded at Ticho Station for SPI-6 (both seasons) and SPI-12 (annual) respectively. The drought prediction was made until 2043, using the Representative Concentration Path way (RCP) 8.5 Scenario.on the basis of the drought index measured by SPI. From the analysis of the drought index through the RCP 8.5 Scenario, extreme drought intensity will be more likely to occur. The long-term forecast (12-month period unit) showed that extreme drought would occur severely at station Diksis Sude, Hirna and Adelle from 2035 to 2040 and need more attention for this area