ASSESSING THE EFFECT OF LAND USE LAND COVER CHANGE ON STREAM FLOW AND SEDIMENT YIELD: THE CASE OF ROBIGUMERO WATERSHED, UPPER BLUE NILE BASIN, ETHIOPIA

Abstract

Land use and land cover change significantly affected global water yield and sediment yield. The population within the Robigumero watershed experiences periodic increases that are attributable to changes in land use and land cover patterns occurring over both a spatial and temporal scale. Therefore, this study mainly focused on assessing LULC change and analyzing its impact on stream flow and sediment yield in the Robigumero watershed. For this study, spatial and hydro-meteorological data were used as model input. ERDAS Image 2015 was used to assess land cover classification and accuracy. SWAT model was used to simulate stream flow and sediment yield in monthly time steps. The model predicted stream flow with R2 values of 0.89 and 0.77, NSE values of 0.87 and 0.76, and PBIAS values of -2.3 and -5.1 during calibration and validation periods, respectively. Similarly, the model predicted sediment yield with R2 values of 0.80 and 0.75, NSE values of 0.80 and 0.74, and PBIAS values of -7.1 and 0..9 during the calibration and validation periods, respectively. During the study period from 1994 to 2021, the Robigumero watershed experienced substantial LULC change, with agricultural land and built-up area increasing by 18.6% and 160.8%, respectively, while forest, grassland, and shrubland cover decreased by 12.7%, 10.4%, and 40%, respectively. The calibrated model predicted results showed that on the watershed outlet point, mean annual stream flow increased by 4.64 m3 /s, and mean monthly stream flow increased by 0.86 m3 /s during the wet season and decreased by 0.14 m3 /s during the dry season from 1994 to 2021. Similarly, annual sediment yield increased by 5.5 t ha- 1 .yr-1 , with seasonal yields increasing by 4.84 t ha-1 .yr-1 during the wet season and 0.49 t ha- 1 .yr-1 during the dry season. Spatially, nine subbasins (43.3%) of the catchment revealed sediment yield-critical areas; from these, 24.02 t ha-1 yr-1 of sediment was generated. Implementing terracing, filter strips, and contouring in the critical subbasins demonstrated sediment yield reductions of 71.1%, 46.3%, and 51.9%, respectively. The findings of this study indicate that annual and wet season stream flow and sediment yield increased, while dry season stream flow was reduced. The change in stream flow and sediment yield is a direct result of the significant change in land use and land cover in the watershed. This suggests soil and water resource development in the catchment needs urgent regulation by the LULC and should be given priority to sediment reduction measures